US estimates Russia lost more than 20,000 troops in Ukraine since December

US estimates Russia lost more than 20,000 troops in Ukraine since December

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White House spokesperson John Kirby unveiled newly declassified intelligence about the Russian military. According to the U.S., Russia has suffered at least 100,000 casualties and lost more than 20,000 troops since December 2022. 

He said that half of the killed soldiers were recruited into the Russian forces through the Wagner Group, a Russian private mercenary force that has a reputation for recruiting the prison population in Russia. Kirby did not provide details on how the U.S. intelligence community estimated the figures.

A large portion of the 100,000 casualties came when “Russians attempted an offensive in the Donbas that has failed,” Kirby told reporters. “Last December, the Russians initiated broad operations across multiple lines of effort including Vuldehar, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Kreminna. Most of these efforts have stalled and Russia has been unable to seize any real strategic and significant territory” he added. 

“The bottom line is that Russia’s attempted offensive has backfired after months of fighting and extraordinary losses”. Kirby said that despite repeated military efforts, Russia had been “unable to seize any strategically significant territory” and it has “exhausted its military stockpiles and its armed forces.”

Some of the most intense fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian forces is currently taking place in Bakhmut, a city in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. Russian forces have been pouring massive amounts of military resources into this campaign, slowly prying the city away from a much weaker Ukrainian side. 

Experts believe that if Russia manages to take control of the Bakhmut city, it would provide its force with key supply lines and clear the way to take other cities. However, some experts have also raised questions about Russia’s far-stretched efforts to take control of the city, which exceeds if strategic values in the war. 

A Russian serviceman is seen at the Azovstal iron and steel plant during a press tour organized by the Russian Defence Ministry. (Image Credit: Vladimir Gerdo/TASS)

Kirby said that most of the Wagner troops in Bakhmut were “thrown into combat and without sufficient combat or combat training, combat leadership, or any sense of organizational command and control.”

According to the sources of the Ukrainian military, a large-scale counteroffensive has been planned and is about to set off in the coming weeks. Ukraine’s battlefield progress depends heavily on military supplies from the West. 

As Ukraine prepares for the anticipated spring counteroffensive, it is expected that its forces would utilize all the weapons and military resources, including the fighter jets and tanks, the Ukrainian administration has gathered over the winter. 

Kremlin rejects US claims

Russia rejected the White House assessment saying the numbers had been “plucked from thin air”. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that “Washington simply does not have the possibility to name any correct figures.”

In another development, Russian President Vladimir Putin was warned he could be arrested if he attends a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in South Africa in August. South African authorities said that they would be compelled to detain Putin after a warrant for his arrest was issued in March by the International Criminal Court in the Hague. “We have no option not to arrest Putin,” a government official told local media. 

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