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NATO foreign ministers gathered in the Turkish resort city of Antalya on May 14–15 for a pivotal two-day informal meeting aimed at laying the groundwork for the upcoming NATO Summit in The Hague in June 2025.

Against a backdrop of rising global tensions, from Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine to a dramatically shifting Middle East, ministers focused heavily on increased defense spending, strategic deterrence, industrial production, and long-term support for Ukraine.

However, what makes this year’s session even more significant is the parallel diplomatic engagement between the United States and Syria, signaling a potential reset in relations between Washington and Damascus.

NATO’s strategic recalibration

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte struck a serious tone early in the meetings, stating that the long-standing 2% of GDP defense spending guideline for member states is now considered insufficient.

“We will need greater investment in our core military requirements as well as additional broader defense-related investments, including infrastructure and resilience,” he said. “We have to make sure that we spend enough money all over NATO to keep ourselves safe.”

This reflects a broader recalibration of NATO’s strategic posture, particularly in response to Russia’s ongoing military aggression, China’s rising defense capabilities, and the persistent global threat of terrorism.

Rutte praised the Alliance’s members for embracing the financial realities of modern deterrence. “Most Allies are now set to reach the initial aim of spending 2% of GDP on defense this year, and many have already announced plans to go much further,” he stated. “We are now on the right track.”

Germany has reformed its fiscal policy by adjusting its constitutional debt brake to allow more flexible defense spending, a significant development for Europe’s largest economy.

Ukraine remains an enduring priority

The war in Ukraine remained central to the talks. NATO members reiterated their collective commitment to Kyiv’s defense and to ensuring that Russia’s aggression fails to deliver strategic gains.

“With or without a settlement, it is clear that our support to Ukraine will continue to be important to ensure a lasting peace,” Rutte affirmed. The ministers underscored that support for Ukraine is not simply a temporary wartime measure but a long-term pillar of NATO’s regional security architecture.

Defense industrial production

Another key agenda item was ramping up defense industrial production across NATO territories. NATO Chief made it clear that NATO must outpace Russia not only on the battlefield but also in manufacturing capabilities.

“We need to produce more, all over NATO. And particularly when we look at Russia, they are so successful at this, and we must beat them when it comes to defense industrial production,” he said.

The main focus at this informal meeting of #NATO Foreign Ministers was on boosting defence spending – the core deliverable for the #NATOsummit. Discussions focused on what we need for the future to be able to tackle shared security challenges together & keep our people safe pic.twitter.com/Tm1Ugdf8rP

— Mark Rutte (@SecGenNATO) May 15, 2025

This emphasis signals a transition toward a war economy model, similar to what has been adopted by Russia and Ukraine, albeit tailored to NATO’s decentralized defense industries.

Dialogue and diplomacy

This year’s informal setting allowed for candid dialogue, in line with the “Gymnich-style” tradition that emphasizes trust-building over rigid protocol. As initiated by Germany in 2022, the format excludes advisers from the table, enabling ministers to engage in more spontaneous and genuine debate.

The Antalya meeting also marked the first NATO gathering for several new foreign ministers, including Germany’s Knut Abraham Wadephul, who used the occasion to deepen ties with key NATO players, particularly the U.S. and Turkey.

Syria-US engagement

In a major geopolitical subplot, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a high-profile meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan Al Shaibani on the sidelines of the NATO summit, the clearest signal yet of thawing U.S.-Syria relations.

The meeting came just days after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would begin lifting sanctions on Syria, and met with Syria’s new president, Ahmed Al Shara, during a surprise visit to Saudi Arabia.

Rubio outlined a phased approach to sanctions relief, starting with temporary waivers and potentially culminating in a full repeal, if Syria demonstrates lasting reforms. “We’re not there yet,” Rubio cautioned. “That’s premature.”

While details remain scarce, Rubio emphasized that Washington’s goal is a “peaceful, stable Syria” and welcomed recent Syrian calls for peaceful coexistence with Israel and a commitment to expelling terrorists.

The presence of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Senator Lindsey Graham, and the online participation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan underlined the significance of the event.

“I will be working closely with President Trump, Secretary Rubio, and their teams to follow up on sanctions relief, and hopefully, eventually rescinding Syria’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism under U.S. law,” Graham said.

The transformation of President Al Shara, from a former jihadist commander to an international statesman, has raised eyebrows and hopes alike. Once a senior figure in Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, Al Shara has made concerted efforts to rebrand himself and his government as secular and moderate.

In a televised speech, he called the lifting of sanctions a “turning point for Syria” that would “alleviate the suffering of the people, contribute to their rebirth and lay the foundations for stability in the region.”

Implications and outlook

The Antalya meeting demonstrated NATO’s resolve to confront a multipolar world defined by unpredictable security challenges. Whether facing Russian expansionism, Chinese militarization, or the potential reemergence of terrorist threats in a reshaping Middle East, the Alliance is recalibrating both its strategy and budget to meet the moment.

As preparations continue for the NATO Summit in The Hague, one thing is clear: the post-Cold War era of minimal defense investment and predictable diplomacy is over. The NATO of 2025 is bracing for an era of renewed confrontation and complex realignments, armed not only with weapons but with a renewed sense of purpose and urgency.