IRIA News

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Italy is reviewing plans to increase its military personnel by more than 60% over the next 18 years. A draft presented to the Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto outlines a broad modernization effort aimed at strengthening Rome’s defense posture amid shifting European security dynamics.

According to the document prepared by military experts and security officials, the strategy would raise combined troop levels across Italy’s army, navy, and air force to 275,000 personnel, up from roughly 170,000 today. The proposed total would include a newly established 15,000-strong operational reserve component.

The initiative is still under consideration and has not been finalized yet. Any formal adoption of the plan would require parliamentary approval. If approved, the increase in personnel would be phased in gradually through 2044.

The estimated initial cost of the expansion is around $7 billion. At the same time, annual personnel expenses are projected to rise significantly, from the current 8.8 billion euros to nearly 15 billion euros once the reform is fully implemented.

Phased Expansion Through 2044

Under the proposal, the expansion would not occur immediately but would instead be introduced in stages over nearly two decades. Military experts recommended a steady buildup to ensure budgetary sustainability and operational readiness.

The framework envisions raising staffing levels across all major service branches. The inclusion of a 15,000-person reserve is intended to improve surge capacity and long-term resilience, allowing Italy to respond more effectively to emerging crises and alliance commitments.

The defense ministry is expected to unveil a broader modernization plan by the end of March, which would incorporate the manpower expansion into a wider restructuring of Italy’s armed forces.

While no final decision has been announced, officials describe the proposal as laying the groundwork for a comprehensive overhaul of military capabilities, personnel structures, and long-term readiness.

Defense Spending and NATO Commitments

Italy’s review of its force structure comes amid broader changes within the North Atlantic alliance. In 2025, NATO countries agreed to increase defense spending to 5 percent of national GDP, a move strongly encouraged by U.S. President Donald Trump to reinforce collective security against modern threats, particularly from Russia and China.

Last year, NATO estimated that Italy spent 2.01 percent of its gross domestic product on defense. While this figure met the alliance’s long-standing 2 percent benchmark, it remained lower than the spending levels of several other member states.

Defense Minister Crosetto, a close ally of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, pledged last year that Italy would work toward meeting the new 5 percent target by 2035. Reaching that level would require substantial increases in defense allocations, particularly for personnel, procurement, and modernization programs.

For heavily indebted Italy, the transition presents both fiscal and political challenges. Raising defense spending from just over 2 percent to 5 percent of GDP would represent a significant shift in national budget priorities.

Political Debate and Budget Pressures

The proposed troop increase is likely to face strong scrutiny in parliament. Critics argue that at a time of high public debt and economic pressure, additional funding should prioritize healthcare, education, and social services rather than military expansion.

Opposition figures and civic groups have already expressed concern that redirecting billions of euros toward defense could strain other public sectors. The projected rise in annual personnel costs from 8.8 billion to nearly 15 billion euros has intensified debate over long-term sustainability.

Supporters of the plan, however, argue that the changing security environment in Europe requires a stronger and more capable military. The war in Ukraine, ongoing tensions with Russia, and strategic competition with China have increased pressure on European states to reinforce their defense commitments.

Officials maintain that any expansion would be implemented gradually and subject to parliamentary oversight, allowing lawmakers to adjust timelines and funding levels as necessary.

Strategic Implications

If approved, the increase to 275,000 personnel would mark one of the largest manpower adjustments in Italy’s modern military history. The scale of the proposed expansion reflects a broader reassessment of force readiness and alliance obligations.

The creation of a 15,000-strong reserve would also signal a shift toward improved mobilization capacity and contingency planning. Combined with modernization efforts expected in the forthcoming defense strategy, the proposal suggests a long-term restructuring rather than a short-term boost.

The government is expected to present the final draft of its defense strategy by the end of the first quarter. Until then, discussions continue within the defense ministry and parliament over the scope, funding, and political feasibility of the plan.

While uncertainty remains, the review underscores a potential turning point in Italy’s defense posture. Balancing fiscal constraints with NATO commitments and evolving security threats will likely define the debate in the months ahead.