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Tensions between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan escalated significantly on April 24, 2025, as Islamabad warned that any attempt by New Delhi to block the flow of cross-border rivers would be viewed as “an act of war.”

The statement followed an emergency meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC), which authorized a sweeping package of retaliatory measures. These include the closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian-owned or -operated aircraft, a sharp reduction in the Indian diplomatic presence in Islamabad, and the immediate suspension of all trade with India.

The developments come in the wake of a deadly militant attack on Tuesday in the Pahalgam region of Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 people. Although the Indian government has not formally named the perpetrators, it has squarely blamed Pakistan for enabling cross-border terrorism. In response, New Delhi announced its own punitive actions, including the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty—a landmark water-sharing agreement seen as a critical pillar of regional stability.

Pakistan has denied any involvement in the attack. Pakistan’s leadership has rejected the move as a violation of international law and signaled that any disruption to its water rights would trigger a robust response. With both countries now engaged in tit-for-tat actions across diplomatic, economic, and strategic domains, analysts warn the crisis could further destabilize South Asia and derail any prospects for dialogue in the near term.

Diplomatic fallout after Pahalgam attack

The Pahalgam attack has sparked a series of retaliatory actions from both countries, pushing bilateral ties to their lowest point since the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot confrontation.

The attack occurred in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, a scenic area famous for its alpine beauty. At approximately 2:50 p.m. local time, at least seven militants dressed in camouflage opened fire on a group of tourists, killing 26 people, including 25 Indian nationals, two foreign tourists from Nepal and the UAE, and a local guide. The attackers injured over 20 others using M4 carbines and AK-47 rifles and reportedly asked victims to recite religious phrases before opening fire.

A little-known group, “The Resistance Front,” claimed responsibility, alleging the victims were linked to Indian security forces and efforts to alter Kashmir’s demographics.

India’s rapid retaliation and suspension of Indus Waters Treaty

India’s response was swift and largely aimed at Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi immediately returned home from Saudi Arabia, where he had gone only a few hours before the attack on an official visit. Modi convened an emergency meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security, which announced a series of measures against Pakistan.

India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a key agreement governing river sharing between the two countries. Analysts view this move as a major escalation, signaling a severe breakdown in trust between Islamabad and New Delhi.

India also shut down the Wagah-Attari land border, expelled Pakistani military and diplomatic personnel, and revoked the visa status of Pakistani nationals in India, ordering them to leave within 48 hours.

Indian leaders issued strong public statements condemning the violence and vowing retribution. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh hinted at actions targeting not only the perpetrators but also those “behind the scenes” who orchestrated or enabled the attack.

Pakistan warns India that water treaty suspension will be considered ‘Act of War’

Pakistan, for its part, reacted with fury and alarm. In an emergency session of its own National Security Committee, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military leaders issued a direct warning to India, stating that any disruption to Pakistan’s water supply through the Indus River system would be considered an act of war.

“Water is a vital national interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs,” the official statement read. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War.” The government stated it was ready to respond “with full force” and across “the complete spectrum of national power.”

Pakistan’s response included closing its airspace to Indian flights, expelling Indian diplomats, and halting all forms of bilateral trade and visa processing, except for Sikh pilgrims, likely due to religious sensitivities. Officials also criticized India’s reaction as premature and lacking evidence, accusing New Delhi of politicizing the tragedy for domestic or international gain.

Statements from Pakistani ministers, including those overseeing defense and foreign affairs, emphasized that Pakistan condemns terrorism in all forms but firmly rejected any suggestion that its government had anything to do with the Pahalgam attack. Instead, they accused India of jumping to conclusions without proper investigation, fueling public hysteria and inflaming tensions unnecessarily.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who also serves as deputy prime minister, called the Indian steps “immature and hasty” in a television interview on Wednesday night. “India has time and again played the blame game and if there is proof of Pakistan’s involvement, please share it with us and the world.” Dar added that India has “not shown any maturity in their response. This is not a serious approach. They started creating hype immediately after the incident.”

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif also rejected India’s implication of Pakistani involvement in the attack. “India’s allegation against Pakistan for the Pahalgam incident is inappropriate. There should be no ambiguity that we strongly condemn terrorism,” Asif said.

India and Pakistan announce tit-for-tat measures

Tensions between India and Pakistan have entered a dangerous new phase, with both governments announcing a series of retaliatory diplomatic, military, and economic measures following the attack.

Actions by India: In response to the assault, India unveiled a broad slate of punitive steps aimed at isolating Islamabad:

• Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a foundational accord governing the shared use of cross-border rivers.
• Closure of a key border crossing, disrupting the movement of goods and civilians.
• Immediate suspension of all visa services for Pakistani nationals under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES). All Pakistani citizens in India were ordered to leave in 48 hours.
• Expulsion of Pakistani military attachés, with India declaring them persona non grata and ordering their departure within seven days.
• Reduction in Pakistani diplomatic staff, mandating a drawdown from 55 to 30 personnel by May 1.

Pakistan announces retaliatory measures: Islamabad has responded with near-symmetrical measures, signaling its intent to match India step-for-step:

• Rejection of India’s suspension of the water-sharing treaty, with the Foreign Ministry warning that any disruption would be treated as an “act of war.”
• All visas issued to Indian nationals under SVES are canceled, effective immediately. The only exemption applies to Sikh religious pilgrims. Indian nationals currently in Pakistan under the scheme must exit within 48 hours.
• Suspension of all bilateral agreements, including the Simla Agreement, effectively freezing formal engagement.
• Indian military attachés in Pakistan have been declared persona non grata and must leave by April 30, 2025. Indian High Commission staff in Islamabad is capped at 30.
• Closure of the Wagah border, a symbolic and practical blow to cross-border relations.
• Closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian-owned or -operated aircraft.
• Pakistan has suspended all trade with India, including transit trade involving third countries.

Nuclear rivals on the brink of war

The international community has reacted with a mix of condemnation and concern. Global leaders have unanimously denounced the attack on civilians and extended their condolences to the victims. The United Nations stressed that such acts of terror are unacceptable and called for calm and restraint on both sides.

World powers, including the United States, Russia, and regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, expressed solidarity with India, while urging both countries to avoid further escalation. U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who happened to be visiting India at the time of the attacks, voiced strong support for India’s fight against terrorism. Russia, India’s long-time strategic partner, also reaffirmed its commitment to counterterrorism cooperation.

However, behind these statements lies a quiet unease from the international community. Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, and their history of conflict, especially over the disputed Kashmir region, makes any flare-up a potential global concern. The fear is not just about military escalation, but also about how domestic political pressures, media narratives, and nationalist sentiments can rapidly spiral into conflict in such a volatile environment.

Emotions are running high on both sides of the border, and decisions taken in the coming days will determine whether the region moves toward confrontation or containment. For India, the attack is seen as a clear challenge to its sovereignty and security. For Pakistan, the response threatens vital national interests and dignity.

With much at stake for India, Pakistan, and regional stability, the need for calm diplomacy and restraint is crucial. The next steps could either lead to talks or further conflict. The world is watching to see which path the two countries will take.