IRIA News

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Diplomats from Iran and the three European signatories of the 2015 nuclear agreement, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, collectively known as the E3, convened in Istanbul on May 16, 2025, for the first time since the United States resumed indirect nuclear negotiations with Tehran in April.

The talks were held at the Iranian Consulate General in Istanbul and attended by senior diplomats, including Iran’s Deputy Foreign Ministers Majid Takht-Ravanchi and Kazem Gharibabadi, along with representatives from the E3. The discussions focused on salvaging the remnants of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and preventing further escalation over Iran’s nuclear activities.

While no European statement was released immediately following the meeting, Iranian officials emphasized that diplomacy remains a viable path forward.

“We exchanged views and discussed the latest state of play on nuclear and sanctions lifting indirect negotiations,” said Gharibabadi, adding, “Iran and the E3 are determined to sustain and make the best use of diplomacy. We will meet again, as appropriate, to continue our dialogue.”

JCPOA’s snapback clause

The meeting comes at a sensitive juncture. While European powers are not directly involved in the ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, the fourth round of which ended recently in Oman, they are closely coordinating with Washington on how to proceed if no deal is reached. Notably, the discussions have involved whether and when to trigger the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism, a clause that would reimpose U.N. sanctions lifted under the 2015 deal.

Under U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which serves as the foundation for the JCPOA, the E3 has until October 18 to invoke the snapback clause. However, the three European nations are expected to activate the mechanism as early as August if no substantial progress is made.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has surprisingly adopted a more pragmatic tone in recent weeks despite his previous “maximum pressure” policy over Tehran, reiterated that Iran should act swiftly. “We’ve put forward a strong proposal,” he stated, urging Tehran to move quickly toward an agreement.

Lack of coherence in the US strategy

European diplomats have voiced frustration over the lack of coherence in U.S. strategy. Coordination between the E3 and Washington has been described as “challenging,” particularly in defining a common timeline and approach to reimposing sanctions should negotiations fail.

British diplomat Christian Turner wrote on X that Iran and the E3 shared a “commitment to dialogue” and confirmed that both sides agreed to reconvene, though he did not specify a date.

Missed opportunities and mounting pressure

While the Istanbul meeting went ahead, a planned session between Iran and the E3 in Rome on May 2 was canceled following the postponement of indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. The cancellation fueled further concern that diplomatic momentum could falter just months before the expiration of key provisions in the JCPOA framework.

Iran has not received any written proposal from the United States, whether directly or indirectly.

In the meantime, the messaging we—and the world—continue to receive is confusing and contradictory. Iran nonetheless remains determined and straightforward: Respect our rights and…

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) May 16, 2025

Adding to the pressure, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with the E3’s national security advisers, also in Istanbul on Friday, to coordinate on matters concerning Iran and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The intersection of these two crises has only heightened tensions between Tehran and the West.

Beyond nuclear concerns, relations between Iran and the European powers have deteriorated significantly over the past year. The E3 has imposed a series of new sanctions on Tehran in response to its ballistic missile development, detention of dual nationals, and increasing military cooperation with Russia amid the Ukraine conflict. These developments have hardened Europe’s stance and raised the stakes in ongoing diplomacy.

Iranian officials remain wary of European intentions, especially regarding the snapback mechanism. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a stern warning in his recently published article. He stated that misuse of the snapback clause could “escalate tensions irreversibly” and “mark not only the end of Europe’s role in the agreement, but also a dangerous turning point.” He appealed to European governments to engage in “further nuclear dialogue with Iran” rather than resort to punitive measures.

E3’s patience is wearing thin

Despite these warnings, the Europeans have indicated that their patience is wearing thin. Without tangible progress toward a renewed agreement or significant de-escalation of Iran’s nuclear activities, they may feel compelled to invoke snapback sanctions, a move that would effectively collapse the already fragile JCPOA framework.

Meanwhile, the indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations, currently facilitated by Oman, have yet to yield a breakthrough. The end of the fourth round of talks in Muscat passed without a scheduled follow-up, and it remains unclear whether a new round will be convened in time to prevent further deterioration.

For Tehran, the stakes are high. Triggering the snapback mechanism would mean the return of comprehensive U.N. sanctions that could severely impact Iran’s already struggling economy. It would also extinguish any remaining diplomatic cover provided by the JCPOA, isolating Iran further on the international stage.

For the European powers, the calculus is equally fraught. While they wish to preserve the nuclear deal, they are increasingly concerned about Iran’s enrichment levels, transparency, and its expanding regional and military activities, all of which undermine confidence in Tehran’s intentions.

Istanbul meeting marked a cautious step forward but left major questions unanswered. The lack of a formal joint statement, the absence of timelines, and continuing uncertainty over U.S. policy all point to the fragile and fragmented state of current nuclear diplomacy.

Still, both sides have signaled a willingness to keep the door open. Whether that door remains open beyond October will depend on the coming weeks and whether diplomacy can prevail over pressure.