IRIA News

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A missile strike simulation conducted by the British military has exposed critical vulnerabilities in the United Kingdom’s air defense systems. The classified exercise reimagined the events of February 24, 2022—the first night of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—playing out not over Kyiv, but across British skies. The outcome was “not a pretty picture”.

Royal Air Force (RAF) leadership described the results as concerning, calling it a serious wake-up call for Britain’s homeland defense.

Utilizing the UK’s cutting-edge Gladiator simulation system, a £24 million (approximately $32 million) digital warfighting platform, military planners recreated an artificial battlespace over the UK. The exercise used real-world intelligence and missile trajectories from Russia’s opening salvos in Ukraine, transposed onto British terrain and infrastructure. The goal was to assess how well Britain’s integrated air defense systems could respond to a high-intensity, state-level missile assault.

The results were sobering. While the full findings remain classified, senior officials confirmed that several missiles successfully penetrated British airspace. The outcome underscored weaknesses in the UK’s ability to intercept and respond to a coordinated, modern missile strike—despite years of investment in radar networks, intercept systems like Sky Sabre, and integrated command-and-control structures.

Gaps in UK air defense

While officials have not disclosed all details of the simulation’s outcome, the overarching message was clear. Air Commodore Blythe Crawford, who oversaw the exercise, summarized the findings bluntly: “Not a pretty picture.” The results suggested that even with Britain’s most advanced defense systems deployed, the Russian missile attack would have caused significant damage.

Crawford explained that the vulnerability is largely because the UK operates under the assumption that being geographically separated from continental Europe provides a strategic buffer against direct attack.

“We’ve stood for years at the western edge of Europe feeling as though the rest of the continent has stood between us and the enemy,” he said. However, the simulation challenged that belief, showing how modern long-range weapons can easily strike targets across vast distances, regardless of geography.

The UK’s current air defense strategy relies heavily on a small number of airbases, none of which have hardened aircraft shelters. In the simulation, many of these were targeted and destroyed before aircraft could take off. Fighter jets worth hundreds of millions of pounds were effectively eliminated before responding to the threat. Additionally, the lack of widespread missile defense systems across British territory left much of the infrastructure vulnerable.

The complexity of modern threats

The simulation also factored in new realities of modern warfare, including the increasing use of drones and decoys. “When you see swarms of hundreds of drones now operating in Ukraine, some of them decoys, some of them with munitions on board, the challenge is how do you tackle them all, or do you tackle them all?” Crawford noted.

These developments show that modern attacks are not limited to simple missile strikes. Instead, they are now multifaceted, combining drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and cyber elements to overwhelm defensive systems. Even the best-prepared defense can struggle to manage the complexity and volume of modern threats.

‘A Wake-Up Call’

Crawford emphasized that the simulation was a wake-up call not just for the UK, but for all Western allies.

“We in the UK over the last few decades have become focused on being garrison safe and making assumptions that we are safe to operate from the home base because most of the wars we’ve been fighting have been overseas,” he said. “We need to reverse that thinking and assume that from here on, we’re under threat in the home base now as well.”

This means reconsidering how forces are stationed and protected within the UK, how aircraft are dispersed, and how infrastructure can be hardened against long-range strikes.

UK Military response

In response to the simulation, the UK military has begun implementing changes to improve homeland defense. Measures include hardening existing aircraft shelters, expanding dispersal training for pilots, and preparing alternative runways, such as highways and roads, for emergency takeoffs and landings. These adaptations reflect lessons learned from Cold War-era tactics and the recent Ukrainian experience.

Moreover, there is growing recognition that the UK must expand and modernize its missile defense systems. Much of the current capability is sea-based, relying on naval platforms to provide air cover. This leaves land targets exposed and underscores the need for a robust, integrated missile defense system that includes land-based interceptors and enhanced radar networks.

Future direction

Despite the concerning findings of the simulation, a spokesperson from the Ministry of Defense stated that the UK remains “fully prepared” to defend itself. Officials assert that the UK maintains a wide range of defensive capabilities, including world-class fighter jets, missile systems, and intelligence-sharing frameworks with allies.

Military leaders and defense analysts alike agree that more must be done. The upcoming Strategic Defense Review is expected to focus heavily on threats to the home front. Areas under review include the integration of advanced drone systems, expanded cyber defense, electronic warfare capabilities, and investment in new missile defense technology.